Week 12 FanDuelingPosted: November 23, 2014
For an explanation of the FanDueling series, click here.
Before we move on to Week 12, let’s take a look at the results from Week 11.
To explain how I did this week, I need to explain a little more about the specifics of the contests I enter.
The team I post here each week is the team I use. However, I enter that team in three separate leagues with the same buy-in. I do that because it’s impossible to know how good/lucky my opponents will be in a given league. So, I enter three leagues (instead of using the same amount of money to enter one league) in case I get stuck in a stacked league. That way, I still have a shot in my other two leagues.
I haven’t mentioned that yet because it hasn’t mattered. When I’ve done well, I’ve won in all three leagues, and when I’ve lost, I’ve lost in all three leagues. This is the first time I split leagues, so I thought I’d share that.
I won money in one of my leagues, and lost two, so I got back 60% of my buy-in back. That’s … decent. But I’m really telling you this to share something else with you.
Do you see that 26 up there on the top left hand corner of my team? That means I came in 26th place. Out of 50. In a league in which the top 25 win.
The guy in front of me beat me by .24 points. That’s just over two rushing/receiving yards. So that’s a bummer. I was actually just over the cut line in the waning moments of the Patriots – Colts game last Sunday night, but I believe Andrew Luck’s final garbage time completion put the guy over me. It sucked.
So, as you may have noticed, this was a middling team. Calvin Johnson and Mark Ingram were disappointing. So was the Broncos’ defense. As you can see in last week’s FanDueling, every instinct told me not to pick them, but I did anyway.
And Jerick McKinnon! Why won’t they give him the ball? He had, like, four carries early in the first quarter, then got four the remainder of the game. I’m convinced Norv Turner reads FanDueling and giggles to himself every time I talk myself into McKinnon. I almost did it again! Not this time, Norv.
On to Week 12! Here’s the team I’m rolling with this week:
QB – Mark Sanchez (TEN@PHI) – $7,500
This hurts me. I’m about to root for Mark Sanchez to succeed. But, for the second straight week, I don’t like the quarterback bargains and I have to pick someone I’m not totally comfortable with.
This was pretty much a choice between Mark Sanchez and Josh McCown. The Bears (McCown’s opponent) have given up a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the Titans (Sanchez’s opponent) haven’t given up many points to quarterbacks. So, why am I picking Sanchez?!
It’s because the Bears’ woes have been inflated by the times they got lit up by good quarterbacks. They gave up 15 touchdowns in three games against Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Other than that, they only had one bad game against Ryan Tannehill.
Josh McCown is not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. He’s not even Ryan Tannehill. He may have a good game (I’ll be hedging my bet with Mike Evans) but I think Sanchez’s volume of work gives him a slight edge.
Also considered: Josh McCown ($7,500) Colin Kaepernick (my soul), Brian Hoyer ($7,000), Blake Bortles ($6,300)
RB – DeMarco Murray (DAL@NYG) – $9,000
The Giants have given up the third most points to opposing running backs, and the Cowboys are giving Murray the ball a borderline irresponsible number of carries. I’m sure that has nothing to do with this being the final year of his contract and Adrian Peterson likely moving on from the Vikings.
Anywho, despite being the second most expensive running back (behind Matt Forte), I thought Murray was a pretty good value. He’s coming off a bye, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities against a struggling run defense.
RB – Isaiah Crowell (CLE@ATL) – $5,500
I think Crowell is the best running back bargain this week. I’m terrified of Terrance West, and I realize this is a risky play, but I imagine the Browns will run often against the defense giving up the second most points to fantasy running backs. Hopefully Crowell can make his mark even if West gets more carries than people generally believe.
Also considered – C.J. Anderson ($7,200), Alfred Blue ($7,200), Shane Vereen ($6,500), Jerick McKinnon ($5,600)
WR – Demaryius Thomas (MIA@DEN) – $9,000
The Broncos are back at home, and they will be angry after an embarrassing loss. Still, this game has some red flags. The Dolphins have given up the fifth fewest points to wide receivers. The Broncos’ offensive line hasn’t been great, and the Dolphins’ defensive line has been playing well. Still, Thomas has a high ceiling and a high floor. I prefer him over Calvin Johnson, since I think Belichick will find some way to shut him down.
WR – Mike Evans (TB@CHI) – $8,400
In case I choose incorrectly with my quarterbacks, I have Evans to make up for it. I can’t imagine McCown having a good game without Evans having a good game as well. Evans is arguably the hottest receiver in the league, so hopefully he can get a deep ball or two even if the Bears do manage to shut down McCown.
That rhymed. Unintentional.
WR – Malcolm Floyd (STL@SD) – $5,600
Originally, I had Calvin Johnson in this spot and Jerick McKinnon in place of DeMarco Murray. Then I remembered McKinnon has made me look stupid at every possible turn and Johnson was going to have to deal with Darrelle Revis, Belichick scheming to stop him specifically, or both. So I threw Johnson’s money to Murray, and Malcolm Floyd was the best receiver I could afford. Philip Rivers will probably spend most of this game on his back, but Floyd should still be able to manage 50-60 yards and maybe a touchdown.
Also considered: Jordy Nelson ($9,000), Calvin Johnson ($8,800), Alshon Jeffery ($8,200), Josh Gordon ($7,800), Cecil Shorts ($6,300)
TE – Coby Fleener (JAX@IND) – $5,400
Dwayne Allen is out, so Fleener is the main tight end this week. He was very productive last week against New England, and he should be productive again this week as the Colts continue their trend of decimating bad teams.
Also considered: None
K – Brandon McManus (MIA@DEN) – $4,500
McManus is super cheap, he’s at home, and, as mentioned, the Broncos are coming off an embarrassing loss and will be looking to dominate. Sign me up.
Also considered: None
D/ST – Seattle Seahawks (ARI@SEA) – $5,000
I’m aware the Seahawks’ defense hasn’t been as dominant. Believe you me, I am aware. But this should be a low-scoring affair, and the Seahawks’ season is on the line. I expect the team (and the crowd) to bring it for this one. If not, I know who I’ll be choosing for Most Hungover Fan Base in our Week 12 Recap.
Also considered: None
TOTAL – $59,900