NFL Week 10 PicksPosted: November 13, 2015
We are not gamblers. That doesn’t mean we can’t pretend. Some of these choices have actual thought put into them. More of these choices were made with gut, intuition, and a little thing called grit.
Employ these recommendations at your own peril. Gambling is ungentlemanly.
[Home team in caps. All lines per VegasInsider.com consensus. Bye: Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, San Francisco]
GREEN BAY (-11.5) vs. Detroit
Derek: The Packers are angry, and they will smash. The Lion offense should look a little better coming off the bye, now that Jim Bob Cooter has gotten more of an opportunity to install his offense. But make no mistake, the Lions are one of the worst teams in the league and Green Bay could use a punching bag. The Packers get a confidence boost.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Detroit fans.
Will: I’m picking from the road again this week. I see that my on-the-road picks went a stellar 3-10 last week, so I’m not even going to bother trying to justify this shit anymore. Gut instinct all the way. Packers.
TAMPA BAY (-1.5) vs. Dallas
Derek: The Cowboys have their backs against the wall. They’re pretty much out of the playoffs if they lose this one. Luckily, they play the Bucs, who are inexplicably worse at home. The Cowboys stay alive.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Tampa fans.
Will: Tampa sux. Cowboys.
Carolina (-5.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Derek: I mentioned the potential for a Carolina letdown earlier this week on the recap. I stand by it. The Titans ride the interim coach boost and cover at home.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Carolina fans.
Will: Titans suck. Panthers.
ST. LOUIS (-7) vs. Chicago
Derek: I would not feel comfortable at all backing Jay Cutler against this defense. Now Alshon Jeffery is dealing with another injury and Robert Quinn is returning, so scoring opportunities should be few and far between for the Bears. The Bears D gives up 4.6 yards per carry, which is 27th in the league. Not good with Todd Gurley on the opposing offense. Rams cover.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Chicago fans.
Will: I’m not sure if either of these teams truly sucks. That’s enough for me to take the points. Bears.
New Orleans (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
Derek: Predicting what the Saints are going to do is an exercise in futility. Normally, I’d say I liked the Redskins because the Saints are bad outdoors on the road. But, since the Saints are unpredictable, I’ll go the opposite way. Saints (and logic) win.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Washington fans.
Will: I’m pretty sure the Skins suck. I don’t know if the Saints suck. That’s reason enough to take the Saints.
PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs. Miami
Derek: Sorry, Dan “Marv Levy Marty Schottenheimer Bud Grant” Campbell. After that performance against the Bills, I’m demoting you Dan “Wayne Fontes Dick Jauron Steve Mariucci” Campbell. Another loss, and I’ll be forced to demote you to Dan “Joe Philbin” Campbell. Nobody wants that. Alas, it appears the crappy Dolphins have returned. Eagles cover at home.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Miami fans.
Will: Dan Campbell has betrayed me. I shall never back him nor any of his kind again. Eagles.
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. Cleveland
Derek: It appears Ben Roethlisberger is a longshot to play this weekend. He would certainly help, but the Steelers should be able to ride DeAngelo Williams to victory. The Browns give up more rushing yards per game than any other team. The bigger question is whether it will be Josh McCown or JFF at quarterback for the Browns. McCown gives the Browns a better shot this week, but at some point the Cleveland front office needs to find out if they should target a QB this offseason. I’ll say Williams gashes the Browns and the Steelers hold on.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Cleveland fans.
Will: The Browns legitimately have me wondering why I pay attention to football at all. They’ll win by 50.
BALTIMORE (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville
Derek: I’m not giving 5.5 points when Joe Flacco is throwing to Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens. I’d rather (gulp) back Blake Bortles and the Allens. I like the Jags.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Baltimore fans.
Will: I have exactly zero grasp on this game. I have exactly zero interest in either of these teams. I’ll take the points.
OAKLAND (-3) vs. Minnesota
Derek: Ever since they got slapped around by the Bengals in Week 1, the Raiders have looked somewhere between mediocre and decent. And, while Adrian Peterson could set records after seeing what DeAngelo Williams did last week, Teddy Bridgewater was unconscious on the field not five days ago. And it looks like he’s going to play! One of my gambling rules is not betting on a quarterback that looked dead on the field less than a week ago. I’ll take Oakland.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Minnesota fans.
Will: I just hope Teddy doesn’t die. Raiders.
DENVER (-5.5) vs. Kansas City
Derek: The Chiefs have won two in a row, but those were at home against Landry Jones and in London against the horrendous Lions. The Chiefs should have won the first time these teams played, but Jamaal Charles was playing in that game. Without him, I don’t know how the Chiefs are going to score. The Broncos won’t need to score much to cover, and I think they pull it out.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Kansas City fans.
Will: Yeah, I’m not about to be roped in by the Chiefs. Broncos.
New England (-7) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Derek: Ugh. This game is going to be fun to watch, but not very fun to pick. The Patriots are 5-2-1 against the spread this year, and they’ve won every game by seven or more. I’ll just leave it at that and pick the Patriots.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, New York fans.
Will: I’m betting that the Giants come up with another touch of their demon magic. Giants.
SEATTLE (-3) vs. Arizona
Derek: I remember the last three times the Seahawks had a big night game at home with playoff implications. Remember this one? How about this one? And who could forget this one? And while this one, wasn’t at home, the situation was similar. That’s four big primetime games against four of the NFC’s top teams at the time, and four Seattle blowouts. Add in the fact that the Cardinals haven’t really looked good unless they’re playing one of the worst teams in the league, and I say the Seahawks win and cover.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Arizona fans.
Will: I don’t trust either team. I’ma take the points.
CINCINNATI (-10.5) vs. Houston
Derek: Couldn’t you see Brian Hoyer covering this spread with a garbage time touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins? I know I could. But the Texans have played some of the worst football I’ve seen this year, and I don’t feel comfortable backing them against a good team. I’ll take Cincy.
But does it really matter what I think? My picks suck. You’re welcome, Houston fans.
Will: Man, to hell with the Bengals. I will acknowledge them as a legitimate NFL franchise when North Korea acknowledges that no member of the Kim dynasty can actually shoot a 35 on an 18-hole golf course. Go Texans!