NFL Week 12 PicksPosted: November 29, 2015
We are not gamblers. That doesn’t mean we can’t pretend. Some of these choices have actual thought put into them. More of these choices were made with gut, intuition, and a little thing called grit.
Employ these recommendations at your own peril. Gambling is ungentlemanly.
[Home team in caps. All lines per VegasInsider.com consensus.
HOUSTON (-3) vs. New Orleans
Derek: Last week, the coin and I used some twisted logic to pick the Saints on the road, and they naturally got blown out. Now I’ll just turn to regular logic. The Texans defense has been much improved, while the Saints defense looks like it couldn’t stop a decent high school team. Can you imagine what’s going to happen if DeAndre Hopkins gets a few one-on-one matchups with Brandon Browner? It’ll be pass interference or a touchdown every play. The Texans march on.
Will: This week’s picks come courtesy of an ongoing Thanksgiving-derived coma that may never end. Thursday’s feast was merely prelude to the inhalation of leftovers that continued deep into Saturday night. My eyes have a thick sheen of gravy haze over them as I try to make sense of these matchups. It may not go well.
The poor Saints have looked like cold feces since they beat the Falcons, Saints, and Giants successively. They lost to the putrid Titans and were blown out by Washington. The Texans, meanwhile, have won three straight on the back of a rejuvenated defense and the singular brilliance of Hopkins. I’m slightly hesitant to pick Houston, but there ain’t no way I’d pick the Saints. Texans it is.
ATLANTA (-1) vs. Minnesota
Derek: I’m tired of giving the Falcons the benefit of the doubt. Every week I pick them to bounce back and every week they disappoint me. I’m sure the week I finally turn on them will be the week they actually do bounce back, but at least I’ll be able to sleep at night by not backing this horrible team yet again. Vikings cover.
Will: I do believe more than a few of us have been duped by the Falcons. Did you realize that they won a total of 10 games the past two seasons? I sure didn’t. I’ve been operating under the assumption that they’ve been decent for quite a while. Looking at their past two years makes me feel like their losing four of the past five is more rule than exception. The Vikings look darn solid, thus I choose them.
CINCINNATI (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
Derek: Poor Todd Gurley. He has no quarterback, no offensive line, and no receivers. He’s in one of the worst running back situations in the league, which makes it all the more incredible that he’s been somewhat effective.
If Robert Quinn is back and St. Louis’ defense is somewhat healthy, I could see them covering or winning an ugly 12-10 kind of game. But the Bengals should be able to score enough points to cover at home.
Will: There’s really no good to pick the Rams except for all those points and the ongoing belief that the Bengals are booty. That’s good enough for me. Please don’t remind me of this pick when it’s 20-3 at halftime. Rams!
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) vs. Tampa Bay
Derek: I’ve got nothing here. I’m not saying a compelling case could be made for both teams, but certainly a lukewarm case. Matt Hasselbeck surely can’t keep this up forever, and the Buccaneer offense is creeping toward being underrated. On the other hand, the Colts are at home and are indeed undefeated in games Hasselbeck starts. Since I have no idea, it’ll be the points for me.
Will: You, sir, said it better than I ever could. Bleh. Go Bucs.
New York Giants (-3) vs. WASHINGTON
Derek: The Giants are coming off a bye and are a much better team. I never totally trust the Giants in games they should win, but I will do so here. The spread is pretty low and the Redskins have a recent habit of losing by double digits. The Giants have covered four weeks in a row.
Will: I like the Giants quite a bit this year, but this game gives me pause. Something about NFC East matchups makes me think this thing is going to be a derp-off. I’ma take Washington.
Oakland (-1.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Derek: I was really looking forward to picking against the Raiders out of spite, but unfortunately they play the Titans. While I’d prefer to pick against both of these teams, I’ll reluctantly back Oakland.
Will: Does the NFL just suck this year? At risk of insulting this week’s cracker of a Monday night matchup, why would anyone want to watch this game? I think Oakland is the better team, but screw it, I’ll take the points.
KANSAS CITY (-6) vs. Buffalo
Derek: Last week, I thought the Chargers had a shot against Kansas City because the Chiefs have struggled against teams that can pass. Obviously, I was mistaken when I labeled the Chargers as one of those teams. The Bills, however, are in no danger of torching teams through the air. The Bills are a good running team, but I don’t think this is a good matchup for them. The spread gives me pause, but the Chiefs are on a roll and typically kick it up a notch at Arrowhead. I’ll take Kansas City.
Will: Break up the Chiefs! They’ve won four in a row, and the closest of those games was a 10-point victory over the Steelers. The Bills have been mildly frisky this year, but it’s tough to see them keeping this close. Chiefs it is.
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) vs. Miami
Derek: The Jets embarrassed the Dolphins in London earlier this year, leading to the dismissal of Joe Philbin and the arrival of Dan “Joe Philbin” Campbell. The Jets are one of the coldest teams in the league, but the Dolphins aren’t so great either. Their only somewhat decent performance in the last month came against the suddenly horrendous Eagles. I say the Jets get back on track.
Will: REVENGE GAME! Joe Philbin will not have died in vain. The Dolphins avenge their fallen coach (even though they all hated him).
JACKSONVILLE (-4) vs. San Diego
Derek: It’s entirely possible the Chargers are just going to pack it in for the rest of the year. They have too many injuries and zero support from their city. I feel sick to my stomach trusting Jacksonville as a favorite, but the Chargers are a legitimate contender for the number one pick. The Jags cover at home.
Will: What. A. Terrible. Game. I’m starting to think that I just don’t like football anymore. I’ll gladly watch a shitty NBA game like Lakers-Kings, but this doesn’t even threaten to hold my attention. San Diego has been awful, but I’m gonna take the points.
Arizona (-10) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Derek: I’m tempted to take the Niners, since they play better defense at home. But the Seahawks managed to cover in Santa Clara, and Arizona’s offense is much better. I’ll reluctantly pick Arizona.
Will: The Niners have lost by an average of just over 11 points per game this season. The Cardinals are an above average team. Thus, I pick the Cardinals. This logic is flawless.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Derek: Allow me to put my reverse jinx hat on.
The Seahawks shouldn’t be favored in this game. They’ve given me no reason to believe in the mystique of their defense and home field advantage. Richard Sherman should have a decent amount of success, but the thought of Cary Williams covering Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant gives me nightmares.
There are only three things that make me feel good as a Seahawks fan. First, Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett should have some success against Pittsburgh’s offensive line. Second, Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t very good. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being a shootout. Third, this is the first time the Steelers have played in Seattle since Super Bowl XL. A stadium full of bitter Seahawks fans could take it to another level.
I think the Steelers will cover. And if they win, I hope they do it without cheating.
Will: The Seahawks are a stinky 3-6-1 against the spread this year, which feels exactly right. They’ve won three of their last five, but two of those were against San Crapcisco (the other win was a 13-12 thriller over Dallas). The Legion of Boom’s glory days look to be deep in the rearview mirror. Even with the homefield advantage, I’m afraid I can’t take them. I pick the Steelers, and now I shall throw up a bunch of stuffing.
New England (-3) vs. DENVER
Derek: Long ago, I picked Tyrod Taylor in his second career start against New England because I thought he could do just enough to win behind Buffalo’s defense and home field advantage. Now, we have Brock Osweiler making his second career start, at home, with an awesome defense. I’m not making that mistake again. Patriots cover.
Will: Um, yeah. Denver ain’t coming close to winning this game. Pats all day.
CLEVELAND (-3) vs. Baltimore
Derek: Wooo boy. Clear your schedules for this one, folks! Josh McCown is back under center, which should be better for Cleveland in the short term. The Ravens have been torched through the air this season. And I’m not backing Matt Schaub on the road, especially when I’m only getting three points. The Browns take care of business.
Will: Here’s a fun stat: these two teams are a combined 3-14-3 against the spread this year! That’s even worse than their 5-15 straight up record. Enjoy this one, national television audience! I’m going to this game, more to wield the ticket stub as a badge of honor than out of actual enjoyment of football. But by golly, I’ve gotta pick the Browns. If anyone out there ends up watching this thing, I encourage you to find help. It’s not too late.